BY LEE BOWMAN
Scripps Howard News Service At least 15 states could run out of hospital beds during the peak of an H1NI swine flu outbreak that sickens 35 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday, Oct. 1 by public health advocates. Another 12 states are likely to see 75 percent or more of their hospital bed capacity filled by a surge in flu cases, based on estimates from a model developed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The estimates prepared by the Trust for America's Health assume that the new swine flu will remain relatively mild and behave and spread in similar fashion to the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic, running its course in about eight weeks. Under this scenario, about 2 percent of everyone who gets the flu would require hospitalization. In the computer model, numbers vary based on projections of how the flu might spread, as well as share of the population at higher risk from the flu to age or underlying medical conditions. Thus, the report finds that as many as 12.9 million Californians could get the flu, and 168,025 of those would have to be hospitalized, while Wyoming would see 186,434 flu cases, with 2,485 requiring hospitalization. If that happens, California would be at 125 percent of hospital capacity, and Wyoming at 40 percent five weeks into the outbreak. the states, "communities around the country are racing against the clock as the pandemic unfolds,'' said Jeff Levi, executive director of the trust. The report also examines other preparation issues, such as stockpiles of anti-viral drugs, typical vaccination rates and steps to prepare for special need patients in each state. "The country is much more prepared than we were a few short years ago for a pandemic, but there are some long-term underlying problems which complicate response efforts, like hospital surge capacity and the need to modernize core public health areas,'' Levi said. Besides California, 14 other states would be at or exceed the capacity of hospital beds if a third of the population had the flu: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington. The report also cautions that swine flu cases could well peak in less than five weeks, creating more demand for hospital beds in an even shorter time than the model predicts. Many hospitals do have additional beds and supplies available for emergencies. But they may not be able to come up with additional nurses and other staff to care for a patient surge from the flu. In some communities, overburdened hospitals may decide to postpone some surgeries and other procedures to free up space, and may discharge other patients to nursing homes or other facilities to free up acute care beds.
Potential Pandemic Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Bed Capacity if a 35 percent of population becomes infected with H1N1 swine flu this season. STATE | CASES | HOSPITAL
ADMISSIONS | BED CAPACITY
USED AT WEEK 5 | | Alabama | 1,631,665 | 22,525 | 55% | | Alaska | 240,203 | 2,848 | 58% | | Arizona | 2,275,063 | 29,363 | 117% | | Arkansas | 999,387 | 13,839 | 50% | | California | 12,864,833 | 168,025 | 125% | | Colorado | 1,728,810 | 21,927 | 88% | | Connecticut | 1,225,438 | 17,305 | 148% | | Delaware | 305,582 | 4,197 | 203% | | D.C. | 207,142 | 2,904 | 47% | | Florida | 6,414,919 | 95,064 | 80% | | Georgia | 3,390,010 | 42,348 | 78% | | Hawaii | 450,869 | 6,410 | 143% | | Idaho | 533,336 | 6,803 | 66% | | Illinois | 4,515,547 | 60,934 | 73% | | Indiana | 2,231,877 | 30,234 | 57% | | Iowa | 1,050,894 | 14,951 | 51% | | Kansas | 980,747 | 13,331 | 43% | | Kentucky | 1,494,236 | 20,475 | 52% | | Louisiana | 1,543,779 | 20,381 | 48% | | Maine | 460,760 | 6,762 | 83% | | Maryland | 1,971,759 | 26,691 | 143% | | Mass. | 2,274,288 | 31,942 | 110% | | Michigan | 3,501,198 | 48,584 | 79% | | Minnesota | 1,827,138 | 24,768 | 68% | | Mississippi | 1,028,516 | 13,810 | 35% | | Missouri | 2,069,062 | 28,587 | 60% | | Montana | 338,604 | 4,706 | 48% | | Nebraska | 624,201 | 8,576 | 44% | | Nevada | 910,058 | 11,639 | 137% | | N. H. | 460,533 | 6,419 | 84% | | New Jersey | 3,038,931 | 42,510 | 101% | | New Mexico | 694,525 | 9,273 | 93% | | New York | 6,821,604 | 94,740 | 108% | | N. Carolina | 3,227,845 | 42,464 | 95% | | N. Dakota | 224,518 | 3,215 | 32% | | Ohio | 4,020,069 | 56,228 | 70% | | Oklahoma | 1,274,826 | 17,375 | 57% | | Oregon | 1,326,521 | 18,155 | 107% | | Pennsylvania | 4,356,898 | 63,573 | 77% | | Rhode Island | 367,776 | 5,358 | 143% | | S. Carolina | 1,567,930 | 20,994 | 93% | | S. Dakota | 281,468 | 3,861 | 37% | | Tennessee | 2,175,211 | 29,347 | 61% | | Texas | 8,514,441 | 105,287 | 66% | | Utah | 957,748 | 10,839 | 83% | | Vermont | 217,445 | 3,125 | 108% | | Virginia | 2,719,181 | 36,530 | 100% | | Washington | 2,292,228 | 30,474 | 107% | | W. Virginia | 635,064 | 9,404 | 48% | | Wisconsin | 1,969,788 | 27,196 | 75% | | Wyoming | 186,434 | 2,485 | 40% |
*Based on the CDC’s FluSurge model program. Estimates rely on FluSurge 2.0 Beta Test Software, created by the CDC. More information about the model is available at http://www.cdc.gov/flu/flusurge.htm. This scenario examines what would happen during a mild pandemic outbreak. The severity for this type of outbreak is based on the 1968 flu pandemic, which is considered relatively mild. The factors in the FluSurge model are set to assumptions based on the 1968 pandemic. These default settings assume an outbreak would be eight weeks in duration and 35 percent of the population would become ill. The data for the age demographics are from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, 2006, available at http://www.census.gov/. The bed statistics are based on the total number of licensed 2006 hospital beds (which is available through Kaiser Family Foundation’s State Health Facts, available at http://www.statehealthfacts.org/) and typical hospital bed occupancy rates.
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